Parallel prediction of dengue cases with different risks in Mexico using an artificial neural network model considering meteorological data.

In 2022, Mexico registered an increase in dengue cases compared to the previous year. On the other hand, the amount of precipitation reported annually was slightly less than the previous year. Similarly, the minimum-mean-maximum temperatures recorded annually were below the previous year. In the literature, it is possible to find studies focused on the spread of dengue only for some specific regions of Mexico. However, given the increase in the number of cases during 2022 in regions not considered by previously published works, this study covers cases reported in all states of the country. On the other hand, determining a relationship between the dynamics of dengue cases and climatic factors through a computational model can provide relevant information on the transmission of the virus. A multiple-learning computational approach was developed to simulate the number of the different risks of dengue cases according to the classification reported per epidemiological week by considering climatic factors in Mexico. For the development of the model, the data were obtained from the reports published in the Epidemiological Panorama of Dengue in Mexico and in the National Meteorological Service. The classification of non-severe dengue, dengue with warning signs, and severe dengue were modeled in parallel through an artificial neural network model. Five variables were considered to train the model: the monthly average of the minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures, the precipitation, and the number of the epidemiological week. The selection of variables in this work is focused on the spread of the different risks of dengue once the mosquito begins transmitting the virus. Therefore, temperature and precipitation were chosen as climatic factors due to the close relationship between the density of adult mosquitoes and the incidence of the disease. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was applied to fit the coefficients during the learning process. In the results, the ANN model simulated the classification of the different risks of dengue with the following precisions (R2): 0.9684, 0.9721, and 0.8001 for non-severe dengue, with alarm signs and severe, respectively. Applying a correlation matrix and a sensitivity analysis of the ANN model coefficients, both the average minimum temperature and precipitation were relevant to predict the number of dengue cases. Finally, the information discovered in this work can support the decision-making of the Ministry of Health to avoid a syndemic between the increase in dengue cases and other seasonal diseases.

Predictive models for COVID-19 cases, deaths and recoveries in Algeria.

This study was conducted to predict the number of COVID-19 cases, deaths and recoveries using reported data by the Algerian Ministry of health from February 25, 2020 to January 10, 2021. Four models were compared including Gompertz model, logistic model, Bertalanffy model and inverse artificial neural network (ANNi). Results showed that all the models showed a good fit between the predicted and the real data (R2>0.97). In this study, we demonstrate that obtaining a good fit of real data is not directly related to a good prediction efficiency with future data. In predicting cases, the logistic model obtained the best precision with an error of 0.92% compared to the rest of the models studied. In deaths, the Gompertz model stood out with a minimum error of 1.14%. Finally, the ANNi model reached an error of 1.16% in the prediction of recovered cases in Algeria. .

Comparison of an artificial neural network and Gompertz model for predicting the dynamics of deaths from COVID-19 in México.

The present work is focused on modeling and predicting the cumulative number of deaths from COVID-19 in México by comparing an artificial neural network (ANN) with a Gompertz model applying multiple optimization algorithms for the estimation of coefficients and parameters, respectively. For the modeling process, the data published by the daily technical report COVID-19 in Mexico from March 19th to September 30th were used. The data published in the month of October were included to carry out the prediction. The results show a satisfactory comparison between the real data and those obtained by both models with a R2 > 0.999. The Levenberg-Marquardt and BFGS quasi-Newton optimization algorithm were favorable for fitting the coefficients during learning in the ANN model due to their fast and precision, respectively. On the other hand, the Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm fitted the parameters of the Gompertz model faster by minimizing the sum of squares. Therefore, the ANN model better fits the real data using ten coefficients. However, the Gompertz model using three parameters converges in less computational time. In the prediction, the inverse ANN model was solved by a genetic algorithm obtaining the best precision with a maximum error of 2.22% per day, as opposed to the 5.48% of the Gompertz model with respect to the real data reported from November 1st to 15th. Finally, according to the coefficients and parameters obtained from both models with recent data, a total of 109,724 cumulative deaths for the inverse ANN model and 100,482 cumulative deaths for the Gompertz model were predicted for the end of 2020.

Modeling and prediction of COVID-19 in Mexico applying mathematical and computational models.

This work presents the modeling and prediction of cases of COVID-19 infection in Mexico through mathematical and computational models using only the confirmed cases provided by the daily technical report COVID-19 MEXICO until May 8th. The mathematical models: Gompertz and Logistic, as well as the computational model: Artificial Neural Network were applied to carry out the modeling of the number of cases of COVID-19 infection from February 27th to May 8th. The results show a good fit between the observed data and those obtained by the Gompertz, Logistic and Artificial Neural Networks models with an R2 of 0.9998, 0.9996, 0.9999, respectively. The same mathematical models and inverse Artificial Neural Network were applied to predict the number of cases of COVID-19 infection from May 9th to 16th in order to analyze tendencies and extrapolate the projection until the end of the epidemic. The Gompertz model predicts a total of 47,576 cases, the Logistic model a total of 42,131 cases, and the inverse artificial neural network model a total of 44,245 as of May 16th. Finally, to predict the total number of COVID-19 infected until the end of the epidemic, the Gompertz, Logistic and inverse Artificial Neural Network model were used, predicting 469,917, 59,470 and 70,714 cases, respectively.

DNA-based analyses of molds in Singapore public buildings results in a proposed Singapore Environmental Relative Moldiness Index.

Dust samples (n=75) were collected from shopping malls, hotels and libraries in Singapore and then analyzed using Mold Specific Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (MSQPCR) for the 36 molds that make up the Environmental Relative Moldiness Index (ERMI). Most of these molds (23/36) occur at similar rates in Singapore and the United States. A Singapore Environmental Relative Moldiness Index (SERMI) is proposed which might be divided into low (<18), medium (18 to 28) and high (>28) mold burden categories but more samples will help to refine these categories.

Optimal design of ethanol supply chains considering carbon trading effects and multiple technologies for side-product exploitation.

This work proposes a spatially explicit mixed integer linear programming modelling framework representing the dynamic evolution of a bioethanol supply chain (SC) under increasing biofuel demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission savings over time. Key features of the proposed framework comprise: (i) the incorporation of available set-aside rural surfaces for energy crop cultivation; (ii) the acknowledgement ofan economic value to the overall GHG emissions through the introduction of an Emission Trading System. Multiple technological options are assessed to exploit the co-product Distiller's Dried Grains with Solubles either as animal fodder (standard usage) or as fuel for heat and power generation or as raw material for biogas production (and hence heat and power). Bioethanol production in Northern Italy is chosen as a demonstrative case study.

Event-Related Functional Magnetic Resonance Images during the Perception of Phantom Limb. A Brushing Task.

The phantom limb phenomenon has been used in amputee patients as a paradigm to study plasticity, mainly of the sensorimotor cortex. Nevertheless, most functional studies have been done in upper limb amputee patients using magnetoencephalography and functional magnetic resonance image imaging (fMRI). In addition, the actual experience of phantom limb sensation has not been widely used to study the neural mechanism of the human brain as a conscious knowledge of the phantom limb perception like the integration of the body image in amputee patients. fMRI studies of patients with lower limb amputation have recently been published, but none of these used an event-related design to try to observe only the stimulus application, correlating images with the subject's indication of phantom perception and discarding images with no phantom perception. In this work, we used the event-related fMRI design in two right-handed patients with identical right, transfemoral amputations, performing the same sensitive stimulation in a 3.0 T MR scanner. For comparison, we applied the same paradigm to six control subjects to compare the resulting functional maps. We found areas with statistical significance in the sensorimotor cortex contralateral to the site of stimulation, in the parietal lobe in Brodmann areas 3 in both cases (Patients and Control Subjects), but we also found activation in the Brodmann areas 6, 40, and 5 with stimulation of the stump. We observed a specific activation of the frontoparietal circuit during phantom limb perception in both amputee patients.

Abnormal functioning of the thalamocortical system underlies the conscious awareness of the phantom limb phenomenon.

Phantom limb (PL), a phenomenon experienced by most patients after amputation, has mostly served as a paradigm to study experiences that appear to be associated with neural plasticity within the CNS. However, the subjective nature of PL experiences has had no definitive means of reliable assessment other than using patients' direct reports, nor was there a way to study the neural mechanisms involved in the conscious awareness of this mental phenomenon. Here we obtained patients' indirect responses to PL experiences for an objective evaluation using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Six control subjects and six lower limb (LL) amputees participated in a motor imagery task for both the intact and the particular phantom toes. While all subjects shared neural processing of distinctive regional cerebral activations during motor imagery of the intact toes (prefrontal (PF), supplementary motor area (SMA), primary motor cortex (M1), superior temporal gyrus (STG)), it was only during motor imagery of the amputated toes in amputees that we observed an increased blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signal in the contralateral basal ganglia at the medial globus pallidus (MGP), substantia nigra (SN), and thalamus. This increased BOLD signal in the basal ganglia-thalamus-cortex pathway during imaginary movement of the phantom toes may reflect an abnormal open loop functioning of the thalamocortical system underlying the conscious awareness of the phantom phenomenon. We suggest that the reduction in afferent information contributes to and coalesces with the higher-level reorganization resulting in the subjective conscious awareness of the phantom limb.

Brief report: no evidence for parvovirus B19 or hepatitis E virus as a cause of acute liver failure.

Viral hepatitis A and B are known to cause acute liver failure. While nearly 20% of acute liver failure cases are of indeterminate etiology, screening for other viruses has not been uniformly performed. We looked for evidence for parvovirus B19 and hepatitis E virus in sera from U.S. acute liver failure patients. For B19, 78 patients' sera, including 34 with indeterminate etiology, were evaluated by DNA dot-blot hybridization, reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for immunoglobin G and M antibodies; none showed evidence for infection.

A chemiluminescent, magnetic particle-based immunoassay for the detection of hepatitis C virus core antigen in human serum or plasma.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) exposure in blood donors is determined serologically by the detection of anti-HCV antibodies in serum or plasma. However, a "window" period of 30-70 days after exposure exists where specific antibodies to HCV antigens are not detected. The use of nucleic acid testing for the detection of HCV RNA or antigen testing for the detection of HCV core protein have resulted in dramatic reductions in the pre-seroconversion window period. In this study, an automated HCV core antigen detection test was developed. This magnetic microparticle-based assay utilizes anti-HCV core monoclonal antibody to capture antigen present in human serum or plasma. Captured antigen is then detected using an anti-HCV core monoclonal antibody conjugated with a chemiluminescent compound. The specificity of this assay was established at 99% upon testing a population of normal volunteer blood donors. Sensitivity was determined by testing 16 commercially available HCV seroconversion panels representing genotypes 1a, 1b, 2b, and 3a. In each panel tested, HCV core antigen was detected prior to anti-HCV antibody, resulting in a reduction of the window period by greater than 23 days on average, and greater than 34 days on panels initially NAT negative. In addition, HCV core antigen was detected in >97% of HCV RNA positive/antibody negative specimens, exhibiting sensitivity nearly equivalent to nucleic acid testing in the pre-seroconversion window period for the panels examined.

Seroprevalence of GB virus C and persistence of RNA and antibody.

Exposure to GB virus C (GBV-C) was determined in several U.S. populations by both reverse-transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and by an enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for antibodies to mammalian cell-expressed GBV-C envelope protein, E2 (GBV-C E2). Most individuals exposed to GBV-C were either RNA positive/ELISA negative or ELISA positive/RNA negative. Exposure, therefore, was measured as the sum of GBV-C RNA positive and GBV-C E2 antibody positive specimens, and was higher in commercial plasmapheresis donors (40.5%) than in volunteer blood donors (5.5%). In intravenous drug users (IVDUs), GBV-C exposure was 89.2%. Serial bleed specimens tested for GBV-C RNA indicate that some patients remain viremic for at least 3 years and fail to produce detectable antibodies to GBV-C E2. In other exposed individuals who tested negative for GBV-C RNA, antibodies to E2 appear to be similarly long-lived (greater than 3 years) with a fairly constant titer (ranging in reciprocal endpoint dilution from 336 to 21,504). Since the detection of GBV-C RNA and GBV-C E2 antibody are mutually exclusive in most exposed individuals, studies pertaining to incidence and prevalence of GBV-C infection require both antibody and nucleic acid detection.

GB virus C E2 glycoprotein: expression in CHO cells, purification and characterization.

A 315 amino acid recombinant segment of the GB virus C (GBV-C) E2 envelope glycoprotein (E2-315) was expressed and secreted from CHO cells. E2-315 was purified by affinity chromatography using a monoclonal antibody directed to a FLAG sequence genetically engineered onto the C terminus of the recombinant protein. The secreted protein had a molecular mass of 48-56 kDa and was shown to be N-glycosylated. Amino acid sequencing confirmed the expected N-terminal sequence. Purified E2-315 was used to develop an ELISA for detection of E2 antibodies in human sera. Antibodies to GBV-C E2 appeared to be directed toward conformational epitopes since human sera reactivity was detected in ELISA using native E2-315, but it was extremely weak or non-existent with denatured E2 protein. The use of an ELISA which can detect human GBV-C E2 antibodies will be important in further understanding of the clinical significance and epidemiology of GBV-C.

An ELISA for detection of antibodies to the E2 protein of GB virus C.

An ELISA was developed for detection of antibodies to GB virus C (GBV-C) using a recombinant E2 protein expressed in CHO cells. Seroconversion to anti-E2 positivity was noted among several persons infected with GBV-C RNA-positive blood through transfusion. Of 6 blood recipients infected by GBV-C RNA-positive donors, 4 (67%) became anti-E2 positive and cleared their viremia. Thus, anti-E2 seroconversion is associated with viral clearance. The prevalence of antibodies to E2 was relatively low (3.0%-8.1%) in volunteer blood donors but was higher in several other groups, including plasmapheresis donors (34.0%), intravenous drug users (85.2%), and West African subjects (13.3%), all of whom tested negative by GBV-C reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). These data demonstrate that testing for anti-E2 should greatly extend the ability of RT-PCR to define the epidemiology and clinical significance of GBV-C.

ELISA for detection of antibody to the E2 protein of GB virus C.

An enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for detection of antibodies to mammalian cell-expressed E2 protein of GB virus C (GBV-C E2) is described. Antibodies to GBV-C E2 are captured on a solid phase coated with affinity purified E2 protein. Bound antibody is detected in an indirect assay format using horseradish peroxidase (HRPO) labeled goat anti-human IgG as the secondary antibody. Following a color development step, absorbance at 492 nm is measured. A population of 100 volunteer blood donors was tested to assess the specificity of this assay. Individuals reactive for antibody to GBV-C E2 can be considered to have been exposed to GB virus C.

Prevalence studies of GB virus-C infection using reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction.

Among the three recently described GB viruses (GBV-A, GBV-B, and GBV-C), only GBV-C has been linked to cryptogenic hepatitis in man. Because of the limited utility of currently available research tests to determine antibody response to GBV-C proteins, the prevalence of GBV-C RNA in human sera was studied using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The prevalence of GBV-C is higher among volunteer blood donors with elevated serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels (3.9%) than among volunteer blood donors with normal ALT levels (0.8%). Higher rates were also noted among commercial blood donors (12.9%) and intravenous drug users (16.0%). GBV-C was frequently detected in residents of West Africa, where the prevalence was > 10% in most age groups. Approximately 20% of patients diagnosed with either acute or chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) were found to be positive for GBV-C RNA. In addition, GBV-C RNA sequences were detected in individuals diagnosed with non-A-E hepatitis, with clinical courses ranging from mild disease to fulminant hepatitis. Fourteen of sixteen subjects with or without clinically apparent hepatitis were positive for GBV-C RNA more than 1 year after the initial positive result.

Molecular and serologic analysis in the transmission of the GB hepatitis agents.

Two flavivirus-like genomes have recently been cloned from infectious tamarin (Saguinus labiatus) serum, derived from the human viral hepatitis GB strain, which is known to induce hepatitis in tamarins. In order to study the natural history of GB infections, further transmission studies were carried out in tamarins. Reverse-transcription-polymerase chain reaction and enzyme-linked immunosorbant assays were developed for the detection of RNA and antibodies associated with the two agents, GB virus-A and GB virus-B. The infectivity of both of these agents was demonstrated in tamarins to be filterable through a 0.1 micron filter. Two distinct genomes were identified in the serum of eight of the infected tamarins, while in four tamarins, the genomes were detected independently of each other. Although specific antibodies to the GB virus-B epitopes were detected in the serum of animals inoculated with both agents or GB virus-B alone, antibodies to putative epitopes specific to GB virus-A were not detected in any of the animals. All tamarins inoculated with serum containing GB virus-B exhibited an elevation in liver enzyme levels after inoculation. Elevations of serum liver enzyme levels did not occur when GB virus-A was the only agent detected in the serum. Infection with the original infectious tamarin inoculum conferred protection from reinfection with GB virus-B but not with GB virus-A.

IgM-antibody response to hepatitis C virus antigens in acute and chronic post-transfusion non-A, non-B hepatitis.

A specific IgM solid-phase enzyme-linked immunoassay for the diagnosis of a recent infection by hepatitis C virus (HCV) was developed. The assay utilizes a structural antigen encoded by sequences at the 5' end of HCV (core region) and non-structural (NS) antigens encoded by the NS-3 (33c) and NS-4 (c100-3) regions of the HCV genome. Serial serum samples from several clinically diagnosed post-transfusion non-A, non-B hepatitis patients were analyzed for anti-HCV IgM. This antibody was frequently but transiently detected. Anti-HCV core IgM was more frequently detected than anti-c100-3 or anti-33c IgM. In individuals who resolved their HCV infection or progressed to chronicity, anti-HCV IgM was produced transiently at or near the onset of clinically diagnosed acute hepatitis.

Antibodies to recombinant and synthetic peptides derived from the hepatitis C virus genome in long-term-studied patients with posttransfusion hepatitis C.

Eight of 13 Swedish patients (62%), studied prospectively, who developed posttransfusion non-A, non-B hepatitis (PT-NANBH) had earlier been found to seroconvert for antibodies to hepatitis C virus (anti-HCV) c100-3 in the first-generation anti-HCV enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay 1-18 (mean, 8) weeks after onset of hepatitis. By using a second-generation test utilizing antigens encoded by the core NS3 and NS4 region of HCV, a further four patients non-reactive to c100-3 (NS4) were found to seroconvert. Thus 12 of 13 (92%) Swedish patients with PT-NANBH were shown to have HCV infection. In addition, the serologic reactivity for several individual synthetic peptides and/or recombinant HCV proteins was studied in seven anti-HCV c100-3 seroconverts studied long-term after onset of acute PT-HCV infection. No special patterns were found that could differentiate patients who recovered from those who developed chronic HCV infection. It was concluded that the addition of new recombinant antigens derived from the core and NS3 region to c100-3 (NS4) both improved the sensitivity of the anti-HCV test and shortened the window phase to seroconversion.

Detection of antibodies to hepatitis C virus in U.S. blood donors.

An enzyme immunoassay (EIA) which utilizes a solid phase coated with a recombinant antigen (c100-3) derived from the hepatitis C virus (HCV) genome was evaluated for efficacy in the detection of antibodies to HCV (anti-HCV). The sensitivity of the antibody test was demonstrated by the detection of anti-HCV in a well-characterized panel of human specimens known to contain the infectious agent of non-A, non-B hepatitis. The specificity of the anti-HCV test was evaluated by testing 6,118 serum specimens from volunteer blood donors considered to be at low risk for exposure to HCV. The specificity of the anti-HCV EIA was demonstrated to be 99.56%, since 6,069 of 6,096 specimens from this low-risk group were nonreactive. A total of 49 (0.80%) of the 6,118 specimens were repeatedly reactive in the test, and 22 (46.81%) of the 47 specimens available for additional testing were confirmed as positive for antibodies to HCV c100-3. Among commercial plasma donors, 390 (10.49%) of 3,718 specimens were repeatedly reactive in the EIA. A total of 375 (97.40%) of the 385 specimens available for further testing were confirmed as positive. These limited data indicate that the prevalence of antibodies to HCV is 0.36% (22 confirmed positives among 6,118 specimens) among volunteer blood donors and 10.08% (375 confirmed positives among 3,718 specimens) among commercial plasma donors. The importance of confirmatory testing is discussed.